Here’s what the pundits are predicting for Tuesday’s midterm elections.
RealClearPolitics (RCP) tracks polls and charts their own predictions. As of 2pm on Sunday November 6, they have Republicans taking both chambers of Congress. In the House, RCP has Republicans sitting at 227, which is a majority, with 34 races too close to call.
Virginia has three highly competitive races to watch on Election Night. RCP rates VA02 as Leans GOP, which would be a pick-up for Republicans, VA10 is at Leans Dem, which would be a narrow hold for Democrats, and VA07 is too close to call at a Toss Up.
Predictions have Republican gains in the House nearly everywhere, even in California. The Wall Street Journal writes, “Republicans in 2020 won back four House seats that they’d lost in the 2018 midterms, but California’s redrawn Congressional map was expected to make these seats challenging to hold. Now the political winds have shifted and the GOP’s odds of holding those seats, and possibly picking up four others, have improved considerably.“
The Cook Political Report also predicts Republican gains, but more modest ones. They rate Virginia’s big three races as VA02 and VA07 are Toss Ups and VA10 as Likely Dem, a more optimistic outcome for Democrats than RCP’s forecast.
In the Senate, RCP has Republicans taking the majority by picking up 4 seats; Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada.
Christian Heiens, a Virginia politico who has been accurate in his predictions in past elections, tweeted, “I currently predict a 53-47 GOP chamber (though Georgia could go to a runoff).”
The international press is watching as well. The Economist: “Our best estimate is that Republicans will win the House comfortably. The Senate is too close to call, though Republicans appear to have an edge there too.”
Popular podcaster Joe Rogan said, “the Red Wave that’s coming is going to be like the elevator doors opening up in ‘The Shining.'”
Tuesday, November 8 is Election Day. The polls open in Virginia Tuesday morning at 6am and close at 7pm.
